The effect of the Ukraine-Russia war on world tourism
World tourism just can’t seem to catch a break. It was just recovering from the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and things turn dark again, this time because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Analysts conclude that the impact of this conflict on international tourists could be bigger than that of the omicron variant.
Long term effects are difficult to predict, but the rise in fuel prices it is clear therefore the costs in air transport will increase, the closure of borders in some European countries are also playing against the recovery of the travel industry.
This conflict has benefited México indirectly because North American tourists are avoiding traveling to Europe looking for closer and more secure destinations. The Federal Government was heavily criticized for the “open borders” policy maintained since the start of the pandemic but this has placed the country among the main receiving destinations of tourists in 2021.
It was announced by the United States Department of Commerce that México occupied the first position in trips made by Americans last year, receiving 58.6% of all travelers. This confirms that the reactivation of the tourism industry is happening with short distance trips, this is the case for México that is, on average, four hours by flight from some cities in the United States.
However, not to sound pessimistic but I don’t think we should rejoice just yet because although so far the Ukraine-Russia war seems to favor us, its long-term effects are uncertain. The conflict causes inflation. Since the price of fuel increased, the cost of flights will increase at least 50%; so people will think twice before travelling.
The “butterfly effect” of the war in Banderas Bay
In the case of the Puerto Vallarta and Riviera Nayarit region, the hotel and business association would be the main victims of this war, whose, again, real consequences are not being seen at the moment because the hotels are full and tourists keep coming. The ultimate test will be next winter season, when the bubble bursts, then we will face a very different reality.
National tourism could once again become the destination’s lifeline in this context.
What do you think about this? I’ll be reading your comments.